Peak oil is a term commonly used to describe when global production will reach a maximum. Predictions on when peak oil will occur are varied but almost all estimates lie between 2005 and 2040. Just when is peak oil? This seminar will firstly consider the peak oil case, examining historical discovery and production data over the past 150 years, before presenting a modelling analysis that includes both oil discovery and production from the number of wells online. Our analysis predicts that oil will peak around 2013 (2010-2025).

It is widely accepted that alternative energy sources are required not only to mitigate peak oil but ideally also to avoid climate change. We consider only non-renewable resources here. Non-renewable resources, such as natural gas, oil shale and coal, exist, but what part will they place in future scenarios and will they follow the same peak production constraint as for oil? More generally, does the peak oil approach apply equally for mineral resources? This question is explored through further modelling analysis.

The second part of the seminar examines the case for two minerals, coal and platinum, which are positioned to play a key role in meeting our future energy needs coal as a direct energy source; and platinum as a key component in fuel cells. The modelling approach is similar to that for oil but with some obvious differences in the extraction process. More importantly, though, is the inclusion of the interaction between demand and production. Like oil, we predict that both coal and platinum will experience peak behaviour well before the end of the 21st century if the available recoverable resources data used in the analysis is accurate. If true, then there will be major challenges in supplying global requirements in the medium term.

About the Presenter:

Geoffrey Evans is Professor of Chemical Engineering at The University of Newcastle and is currently Deputy Director of the Centre for Advanced Particle Processing. He has 25 years experience in multiphase processing, with broad application to the minerals and metallurgical processing. He has specific focus on mixing and agitation and developing energy efficient systems that maximise product recovery. Additionally, Professor Evans is also involved in the analysis of energy and minerals resources and the role that technology will play in their utilisation towards meeting future demands.